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World

Forget Brexit, fear 'Brump' or 'Trexit'

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World

Forget Brexit, fear 'Brump' or 'Trexit'

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COMING UP:Forget Brexit, fear 'Brump' or 'Trexit'

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Transcript

00:00:00
>> Outcome worries of a Brexit have European markets in a froth but the prospect of the President Trump has barely caused a stir in US assets. And Mike, the two stories yet combine to rattle investors.>> In London, I'm Reuters Market Editor Mike Dolan. I think the Brexit story has been affecting markets for at least six months.
00:00:18
Certainly UK markets are increasing the European markets. The curiosity, as we get closer to the Brexit referendum is that we are still only six months from the US presidential elections. And in that case, we also have a one in three chance roughly of President Donald Trump. But there's virtually no impact on US assets in particular.
00:00:42
There are several reasons for that there. I think the laziest answer that you hear from people is that markets are quite myopic. They look at the next risk in front of them and will not focus on this until It comes onto their radar screens. But I think what people are beginning to worry about is that they come together, they're conflated in some way.
00:01:01
And the way are more than any other, is that essentially both outcomes are a function of disaffected voters voting against status quo. If there is a vote for the UK to leave the European Union, I think markets and investors appreciation of the clout of that vote will rise quite considerably, and while there will be direct reaction with UK and European markets, people will then begin to take the possibility of a Trump victory in November much more seriously, and the two come together as arguably an anti-globalization feeling within markets that could cause quite a considerable drop in risky assets.
00:01:41
So in conflating these two events call it Trexit, call it Brump, these two do come together and they're not as discreet issues as you might think