To compensate for territorial losses, ISIL will probably rely more on guerrilla tactics including high profile attacks outside the territory in Syria and Iraq that it currently holds. Since at least 2014, ISIL has been working to build an apparatus to direct and inspire attacks against its foreign enemies, resulting in hundreds of casualties, the most prominent examples are the attacks in Paris and Brussels.
We judge that ISIL is training and attempting to deploy operatives for further attacks and the group is probably exploring a variety of means for infiltrating operatives into the West, including in refugee flows, smuggling routes and legitimate methods of travel. As we have seen in Orlando, San Bernardino and elsewhere, ISIL is attempting to inspire attacks by sympathizers who have no direct links to the group.
Last month, for example, a senior ISIL figure publicly urged the group's followers to conduct attacks in their home countries, if they were unable to travel to Syria and Iraq.