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Business

Why Europe tops market risk list for 2017

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Opening sequence

Business

Why Europe tops market risk list for 2017

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COMING UP:Why Europe tops market risk list for 2017

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Transcript

00:00:00
>> After Brexit and Trump, you'd think next year might be a calmer one for markets. Maybe not. Some investors think the following 12 months could be even more testing. And Europe is top of their risk list. Britain's markets correspondent, Jamie McGeever.>> Politics, politics, politics. 2017 sees general elections and the Netherlands, Germany and France and possibly, depending on how next month's referendum goes, and Italy as well.
00:00:28
And if 2016 has shown us anything, certainly on the political front, always expect the unexpected.>> In France, national front leader Marine Le Pen, is riding high in the polls. She wants to follow Brexit with Frexit. An Italian election could see the five-star movement make big gains. It wants to take the country out of the Euro.
00:00:50
And in Germany the populist AfD party is exploiting anger over Angela Merkel's open door for migrants. It all has some traders betting the EU itself could be on the brink of collapse. They're selling off debt perceived as vulnerable to any shop.>> So the obvious one, and it's what investors are playing, is selling Italian bonds, buying German bonds.
00:01:12
Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, the often outspoken hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry has said that investors are looking to next year and playing the European blow-up trade.>> Equities soon recovered after the initial shocks of Brexit and Trump. The EU and the euro have also survived many a crisis.
00:01:30
Plenty expected the single currency to collapse in 2011, at the height of the Eurozone debt crisis. But the political will was there to keep it going. That determination is likely to be tested again.