> Hariri now says he's going back to Beirut, but as Reuters Angus McDowall explains it will be at the behest of his backers.>> Over the past year Saudi Arabia's political calculation appears to have changed.
And swallowed a bitter pill to form a power sharing government with it last year.>>
Iran has become more successful in the political conflicts around the region at the expense of Saudi allies. Particularly in Syria, where the Syrian government has rolled back rebels supported by Saudi Arabia. And also in Yemen, where a Saudi led coalition has failed to dislodge Yemeni rebels backed by Iran.
Iran has constantly trumpeted it's success. Even saying of Lebanon that it is part of the axis of its alliance that stretches now from Tehran to the Mediterranean. For Saudi Arabia that may have all been too much. And may have convinced it to reopen Lebanon as a front in it's rivalry with Iran.
Nobody knows what will happen next. Hariri said that he would return to Lebanon in a few days. What's not clear is whether he will come back ready to make a compromise with President Aoun and his supporters in Hezbollah. And, if so, whether Hezbollah itself, the dominant party in Lebanon, would be willing to accept such a compromise.
Or whether he will return to lead vocal opposition against Hezbollah's dominance. And against the government of which he was so recently a part.