>> The latest cease fire in Syria negotiated between Russia, Iran, and Turkey, is the first time that the United States has been absent from a major negotiation since the beginning of the Syrian civil war. I'm Jonathan national security reporter for Reuters. The United States has welcomed the new Ceasefire agreement.
But the fact that it wasn't involved means that the United States will likely have very little impact on the political negotiations that are due to take place in a month's time, with an aim of finding a solution to the Syrian Civil war. In the short term, the latest cease fire in Syria could well work.
That's because Turkey, which has deployed troops in Syria, would then be able to concentrate on fighting what it considers its main enemy, the Kurds. These same Kurds have been supported by the United States in fighting Islamic State. But in the long term, there are questions about whether or not this ceasefire and the plan itself to end the war in Syria, can hold.
That's because, at least as far as Turkey is concerned, the bottom line is that eventually, President Assad of Syria will have to leave power. That's not something that reportedly sits well with Iran, there's also the question of Israel. The fact that the United States has not been involved in these negotiations, raises a serious question about Israel's security, because Syria has been the conduit by which Iran has sent rockets and other weaponry into Lebanon for use by Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim militia there, against Israel.
As long as the United States was involved, Israel probably could count on Washington. So, if a political deal that results from this cease-fire maintains the Assad Government in place, Israel will then have to worry about whether or not the Iranian weapons pipeline, Hezbollah in Lebanon, will continue to remain open.
So, the long term prospects for this ceasefire, and the political negotiation that are supposed to result, are very questionable.