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Britain has a Brexit deal, technically speaking.>> The negotiations for our departure are now in the endgame.>> British and EU negotiators have agreed on a draft of the divorce bill text. Now, we're just waiting to see what it says officially and whether politicians in London, Northern Ireland, and the EU will get on board with it.
The next step, a meeting between Theresa May and her fractured cabinet on Wednesday. They'll be well aware there's just five months until Friday, the 29th of March, the Brexit grand finale. And even with a draft deal, it's not clear how the final agreements will play out. Reuters Guy Faulconbridge reckons there's still three possible outcomes.
>> So the most likely option, the one that Goldman Sachs thinks is 70% likely is a last minute deal, basically a deal anywhere from now until the 29th of March when we're supposed to leave. And if they don't get a deal now then it probably pushes the time table out into December.
That's a two month delay. And if you push the time table out into December then there's worry that is there enough time to get it approved by the parliament in the United Kingdom and the European Union. And be able to leave on time with the deal done and dusted.
One of the other main options is disorderly Brexit, the nightmare for everybody involved from the EU to the UK to businesses, apart from a few Brexiteers who think actually disorderly Brexit might be okay at the end of the day. A disorderly Brexit would silt up the arteries of trade, would scare all these guys behind me in the financial market.
And many think weaken the West as one of the most crucial junctures since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union. So opponents of Brexit want to sell a subcategory of disorderly Brexit which would actually lead to the end of Brexit. They wanna stop Brexit. They want another vote and they want that vote to say no to Brexit and then we basically rewind two and a half years and just say we don't want to leave.
Very difficult to understand how another vote would be caused and by whom. Who would say we want another vote. The poll showed Britain is divided, but probably would vote to stay in if it was given another vote. Whether it will happen is very, very unclear.