>> Bavaria's Oktoberfest in full swing. One of the powerful German state's grand traditions, but another of the political variety is under threat. For 50 years, the southern region has been dominated by just one party, the Christian Social Union. Now for only the second time, it faces losing its absolute majority, thanks to right-wing anti-migrant and anti-Islam party AFD.
They're set to take 12% in regional elections, destabilizing CSU control.>>
> We are a party that has very clear ideas of its program and which addresses many topics which the other parties would prefer to sweep under the carpet. That's why more and more people are voting for us.
Because they are saying that these topics belong on the agenda. For example, the topic of immigration.>> The CSU is allied with Angela Merkel's CDU. Leader Horst Seehofer, that's him in the striped tie, is interior minister. So results will be felt at national level as well as in Bavaria.
Reuters correspondent Madeline Chambers is in Berlin.>> Some people say he might even have to resign. That could be a double-edged sword for Merkel. It might make her life easier in the short-term, because he is a difficult partner for her and they've had some very deep divisive rows.
But on the other hand, ultimately, losses for a conservative party mean bad news for the conservative bloc and that's bad for Merkel.>> The AFD is now the third largest party in Germany. It was criticized this summer after some members joined hard-right groups at anti-immigration protests in Kemnitz.
But their anti-Islam and anti-migrant stance may resonate in the October 14th elections, as Bavaria has been the entry point for 1.5 million migrants over the last three years.