FIRST AIRED: December 7, 2018

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Transcript

00:00:01
>> It's looking ever less likely that Christmas will come early for Theresa May. And more like a bleak midwinter as lawmakers line up to slam her Brexit deal. Parliament began a long heated debate this week, in the run-up to a crunch vote on Tuesday. One which May's own ministers have sought to delay, fearing their boss faces a rout.
00:00:21
>> If May does get her deal through Parliament, the United Kingdom will leave on March the 29th at 23:00 London time. And that will be Brexit, done and dusted.>> Here's Reuters' Brexpert, Guy Falconbridge to talk us through the if nots, starting with the big one, the May resigns scenario.
00:00:39
>> She negotiated this deal, this is her deal. This is the most important issue for British politics in four decades, and if she can't get it through Parliament, the question is, can she carry on? A lot will depend on the numbers.>> Ministers.>> But May's premiership has been nothing if not rocky, and she's been nothing if not tenacious.
00:00:58
>> So if May does lose, the opposition Labour Party say they want to have a no-confidence motion in the Prime Minister. Theresa May may not lose that confidence motion, in which case, you would get to a situation where Parliament is basically deadlocked.>> So if May stays, what happens to that deal of hers, two long years in the making?
00:01:18
>> Leave means leave!>> She's got a choice. Does she try again, push it through Parliament a second time? Or she could try to get a new deal with the European Union. But remember, the clock will be ticking by that point. There will be only about three and a half months until the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU.
00:01:35
So there isn't much time to get a new deal.>> And the burning issues won't suddenly go away. Such as the Northern Irish backstop, aimed at avoiding a hard border with Ireland. And Brussels isn't exactly clamoring to reopen the deal, about 600 pages of dense legal text.>> So the bottom line is that if May loses this deal, the United Kingdom faces a few choices.
00:01:59
Either it leaves with a new deal, a deal sort of cobbled together at the last minute, it leaves without a deal, or that it reverses Brexit.>> And pressure is growing for a second referendum to undo the decision made on that fateful day in 2016. So far, though, in a far from United Kingdom, it's unclear if the choice would be any different second time round.