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00:00:01
>> French voters head to the polls on Sunday in the first round of the country's most unpredictable presidential election in living memory. Opinion polls show that any two of the top four candidates could qualify for round two. Reuters correspondent in Paris, Ingrid Melander, explains the most probable outcome.
00:00:19
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> The most controversial scenario would be Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, that is the far-right Le Pen and the far-left Mélenchon, that would mean no moderates, no centrist candidate for the second round.
00:00:43
So no one really knows who's gonna be in the second round.>> Indeed, after sunday's vote, France could be faced with an even more polarized choice for the May the seventh run off.
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Abstention is quite an issue in this election.
00:01:13
That would be two candidates who are both very much against the EU and against the Euro. That would certainly be quite a shock to financial markets and to voters generally.>> And then, there's another worry to add to the mix.>>
00:01:34
Usually French voters are quite disciplined, French people go and vote especially in presidential elections. Turnout is most of the time 80% or more. The only time where it was essentially low was in 2002. And that was when Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen surprisingly made it to the second round.
00:01:57
Cuz this time, pollster predict around 25, 28, 30% abstention, that's really high. That means that the higher the abstention, the higher the possibility of surprises.>> It's thought this would work in Le Pen's favor. Her voters seem more passionate, and thus more likely to get out and vote.
00:02:16
Of course, there's one extremely unlikely scenario, that one of the 11 candidates triumphs with 50% of the votes this weekend and wins outright. But opinion polls currently show no candidate getting even half that.