>> The economy is indeed doing well.>>
>> But it might not be doing well enough for Republicans this fall. President Trump points to his tax cuts and strong job growth. But political scientists and economist who use computer models to forecast the coming elections say that unless the economy kicks into higher gear, Republicans will be hard pressed to keep their hold on the House of Representatives.
Jason Lang is reporting the story.>> By a lot of measures, the economy is doing pretty well especially the jobless rate, which is at its lowest in many years. But income growth has been more middling by historical standards. And the political scientists and economists who do use economic data for forecasting election results think that income growth just isn't quite strong enough to allow the Republicans to hold on to the majority.
>> Even with Trump's tax cuts, after tax incomes are up a modest of 1.5% through May.>> The one leading model by two political scientist, one at the University of Iowa, the other at City University of New York suggest that the income growth that we've seen so far points to perhaps 32 Republican seats being lost in the midterms this time around.
That would be more than enough for Democrats to have a controlling majority of seats in the House. Another key factor, the President's approval ratings. Hovering now at just 42% in Galope's June polls. That could spell trouble.>> The way one of them put it to me, is that the economy really has to be rocking to overcome President Trump's historically low approval rating.
>> Some experts think that a sudden burst in economic activity could still get Republicans over to the finish line with their House majority intact. But with global markets roiled by Trump's wave of tariffs on imported goods, that kind of growth will be hard to see before voters head to the polls in November.