>> Here at Dubai's old waterfront, wooden dowels load goods, consumer electronics, car parts, machinery for transport across the gulf to Iran. It's a trade worth billions of dollars a year, but it's threatened by geopolitics, after US President Donald Trump decided to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal.
This is Andrew Torchia for Reuters at the Dubai Creek. US sanctions against Iran may be positive for the big Arab economies. That's because they may make it more difficult for Iran to exploit oil, giving more potential for the Arab producers to sell oil at higher prices. But the picture is different for Dubai.
Dubai isn't a large oil producer, and it's a traditional center for business with Iran. UAE exports to Iran, the vast majority of them through Dubai, account for about 5% of its gross domestic product, or well over $10 billion. That business is expected to become more difficult, as the threat of US legal action makes banks and money changers more careful about extending financing to the Iran trade.
In addition, the looming US sanctions have pushed the Iranian Rial down sharply against the US dollar, by about a third in the last few months. That is increasing risks for people here doing the Iran business. In the long run, the trade isn't likely to end. There's too much money at stake for people to abandon it.
But the best days of Dubai's Iran trade may be over.